Search results for "Stochastic discount factor"

Appearances of pseudo-bosons from Black-Scholes equation

2016

It is a well known fact that the Black-Scholes equation admits an alternative representation as a Schr\"odinger equation expressed in terms of a non self-adjoint hamiltonian. We show how {\em pseudo-bosons}, linear or not, naturally arise in this context, and how they can be used in the computation of the pricing kernel.

The shape of small sample biases in pricing kernel estimations

2016

AbstractNumerous empirical studies find pricing kernels that are not-monotonically decreasing; the findings are at odds with the pricing kernel being marginal utility of a risk-averse, so-called representative agent. We study in detail the common procedure which estimates the pricing kernel as the ratio of two separate density estimations. In the first step, we analyse theoretically the functional dependence for the ratio of a density to its estimated density; this cautions the reader regarding potential computational issues coupled with statistical techniques. In the second step, we study this quantitatively; we show that small sample biases shape the estimated pricing kernel, and that est…

Corruption, Carry Trades, and the Cross Section of Currency Returns

2017

This is the first paper to explore the effects of perceived corruption on the FX market. It finds that the currencies of countries perceived to suffer from high levels of corruption generate statistically significantly lower returns than the currencies of countries perceived to have low levels of corruption. Moreover, the portfolio spread is highly correlated with NBER recessions and U.S. consumption growth of nondurable goods. Interestingly, stochastic discount factor model analysis reveals that the portfolio spread is useful for pricing the cross section of currency returns, even when controlling for standard FX risk factors.

Minimal Dynamic Equilibria

2018

We define dynamic models as multiperiod models with no static representations and demonstrate that current prevalent asset pricing empirical implementations are inconsistent with dynamic equilibria. Specifically, empirical implementations are misspecified with respect to three essential asset pricing questions (TEQ): dependency on higher moments, complexity of risk premia, and mean-variance efficiency of the “market portfolio” (ability to proxy pricing kernels/SDFs). While we already know that “Merton” models, and their derivatives, differ from static models in all TEQ, we show that this is the case even the “minimal” dynamic equilibria.

Investing for the Long Run

2017

This paper studies long term investing by an investor that maximizes either expected utility from terminal wealth or from consumption. We introduce the concepts of a generalized stochastic discount factor (SDF) and of the minimum price to attain target payouts. The paper finds that the dynamics of the SDF needs to be captured and not the entire market dynamics, which simplifies significantly practical implementations of optimal portfolio strategies. We pay particular attention to the case where the SDF is equal to the inverse of the growth-optimal portfolio in the given market. Then, optimal wealth evolution is closely linked to the growth optimal portfolio. In particular, our concepts allo…

Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Stochastic Programming

2010

Identifying Portfolio-Based Risk Factors in Foreign Exchange Markets

2018

This paper shows that a link between the conditional mean and conditional volatility of any factor-mimicking portfolio in the foreign exchange (FX) market must exist if the proposed portfolio-based currency factor is priced and the pricing kernel has a linear factor structure. Thereby, this paper tests whether the carry risk factor and currency momentum are priced risk factors. Surprisingly, the carry risk factor does not meet the necessary conditions consistent with being a priced risk factor, whereas currency momentum indeed meets those criteria. The findings also indicate that the relation between the conditional mean and conditional risk is moreover economically reasonable for the curre…

Aggregation of preferences for skewed asset returns

2014

This paper characterizes the equilibrium demand and risk premiums in the presence of skewness risk. We extend the classical mean-variance two-fund separation theorem to a three-fund separation theorem. The additional fund is the skewness portfolio, i.e. a portfolio that gives the optimal hedge of the squared market return; it contributes to the skewness risk premium through co-variation with the squared market return and supports a stochastic discount factor that is quadratic in the market return. When the skewness portfolio does not replicate the squared market return, a tracking error appears; this tracking error contributes to risk premiums through kurtosis and pentosis risk if and only …

Growth in Average Firm Size of U.S. Industrial Portfolios and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns

2018

This paper shows that growth in average firm size in U.S. industrial portfolios predicts future growth in average firm size. Moreover, the payoffs of industrial portfolios sorted by growth in average firm size in the previous period increase linearly as we move from lowest to highest growth in average firm size. The spread between highest and lowest growth in average firm size is economically large and cannot be explained by exposures to standard risk factors or the asset growth effect (Cooper, Gulen, and Schill, 2008). Principal component analysis reveals that this growth in average firm size effect is linked to the first principal component. Moreover, stochastic discount factor model anal…

A Top-Down Method for Long-Term Investing

2021

This paper bases long-term investing on a tradeable stochastic discount factor (SDF), relates it to the growth optimal portfolio and argues for a top-down method, where modeling efforts are directed at capturing its long-run dynamics in a generalized setting. This differs from the common, cumbersome bottom-up method of modeling many risky securities in the marketplace. Various optimal portfolio strategies can be implemented efficiently using fractional expectations of the SDF. This paper illustrates empirically for the US stock market that the proposed method leads to higher wealth, higher returns on investment and higher long-term utility levels.